US Elections 2020 - Reality vs Exit Polls

The US elections 2020 are over though the winner has yet to be officially as of today i-e 6th November 2020 as counting of votes in four states namely Georgia (16), Pennsylvania (20) and Arizona (11) are still going on. The postal votes significant in number are being counted as Biden camp emphasis "every vote counts". President trump on the other hand has already declared he will fight a legal battle and wants the counting of postal ballots to be stopped going as far as declaring these as "illegal votes'. The results it seems will take a while though Mr. Biden seems to be in clear lead and heading towards white house as of now. Moreover legal battle will ensue too once the results are announced.

Whatever the results, 2020 US Presidential elections just like 2016 elections have once again proved the exit polls as inaccurate. The exit polls clearly projected a comfortable win for the democrats and Mr. Biden with extensive margins of victory. Mr. Trumps performance in the elections though proved all the exit polls wrong and surprisingly he polled more votes than 2016 elections wherein he won. Moreover though his views were mostly considered anti-muslim and anti- latinos he was able to get more votes from these two communities than he did the last time around. Though as expected greater percentage of urban females voted for Mr. Biden and democrats.

The most interesting aspect of 2020 US Presidential election has been the three main factors which the voters considered while voting for their candidates.

  1. The Economy

  2. Racial issues especially matters relating to black lives matter (BLM)

  3. Handling of Corona issue

This is the reason that whereas President Trump had the incumbency factor yet they performed well overall due to the greater perception of US citizens who thought he was able to focus well on the US economy even in turbulent times and because of the administration's financial support measures during the corona period for businesses and individuals.

The republicans have been able to perform much better against the exit polls and achieve majority in the senate. Moreover they have also been able to considerably improve their seats in the congress. Though all in all the republicans have performed much better against the expectations of the exit poll.

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